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primary topic: Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Regional Sales Using Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR): Spillover Effect Analysis

Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Regional Sales Using Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR): Spillover Effect Analysis
type: AcademicArticle
type: Article
abstract: This study forecasts healthcare product sales across the provinces of Java Island using the Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. The dataset comprises 48 monthly observations from January 2020 to December 2023 for DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and East Java. The methodological steps include stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, model identification based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), spatial weight matrix construction using inverse distance weighting, parameter es timation through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and performance evaluation using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The GSTAR(1,1) model is identified as the optimal specification with an AIC value of 1769.47, successfully capturing strong spatial dependencies, including a substantial spillover effect from West Java to DKI Jakarta (0.76). The model exhibits excellent predictive accuracy, with MAPE values of 1.92% (DKI Jakarta), 3.30% (West Java), 7.97% (Central Java), and 4.93% (East Java), resulting in an overall average of 4.53%, classified as highly accurate. The Ljung–Box test further confirms model adequacy, with all residuals meeting independence criteria. Overall, the findings demonstrate that incorporating both spatial and temporal dependencies through GSTAR provides an effective framework for regional sales forecasting and strategic planning across Java Island.
volume: 10
issue: 2
is part of: CAUCHY– Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
status: peerReviewed
status: published
author list: authors
creator: Farahdiansari Ardana Putri Farahdiansari
type: EPrint
type: ArticleEPrint
is part of: repository
has document: Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Regional Sales Using Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR): Spillover Effect Analysis (Text)
subject: TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering

Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Regional Sales Using Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR): Spillover Effect Analysis (Text)
type: Document
has file: LIT 2025 November Firstyan Deviena Citra Rahayu Ardana Putri Farahdiansari .pdf
has part: LIT 2025 November Firstyan Deviena Citra Rahayu Ardana Putri Farahdiansari .pdf

CAUCHY– Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
type: Organization

CAUCHY– Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
type: Collection
issn: 24773344

Rahayu(2026) Firstyan Deviena Citra Rahayu
type: Person
given name: Rahayu(2026)
family name: Firstyan Deviena Citra Rahayu

Farahdiansari Ardana Putri Farahdiansari
type: Person
given name: Farahdiansari
family name: Ardana Putri Farahdiansari

Universitas Bojonegoro
type: Organization

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primary topic: Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Regional Sales Using Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR): Spillover Effect Analysis

TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
type: Concept