Analisis Forecasting Penjualan Komoditas Hortikultura Multimusim Pepaya Di Hortimart Agro Center Semarang

This study was conducted with the aim to analyze the forecasting sales of horticultural papaya products in the coming period. The ype of data utilized in this study was secondary data related to papaya sales from January to Desember 2023. The data gathered through literature studies, documentation studies and interviews. This study calculating data time series using 4 approaches namely Moving Avarage Method (MAD), Exponential Smoothing Method (MSE),Trend Analysis Metod, and Multicative Decomposition Method (MAPE). The study finds that the forecasting of papaya sales at Hortimart Agro Center by using MAD is 1268 kg, , and by using MSE the score is 1228.204 (α = 0.9). Moreover, the forcasting sales using Trend analysis Method is 1123.697 kg, and the last one is 1092.102 kg using the Multiplicative Decomposition method with a quarterly seasonal pattern (4 months). In addition, based on the fourth calculation of sales forecasting methods it is found that the smallest forecasting accuracy error value is found in the Trend Analysis method, with a MAD value of 124.081, MSE of 22,710.15, and MAPE of 24.7%.