Analysis of Dependence on Oil and Gas, TPT, and Human Development Index (HDI) on Economic Growth and Poverty in Bojonegoro Regency 1995-2024

This study analyses the influence of Oil and Gas Revenue Sharing Funds (DBH Migas), the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), the Human Development Index (HDI), and global oil prices on economic growth and poverty in Bojonegoro Regency during the 1995–2024 period. Using annual time-series data and a quantitative approach, the analysis employs the ADF stationarity test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), the Durbin–Wu–Hausman endogeneity test, and the Toda–Yamamoto causality procedure. The results show that HDI positively affects economic growth, while unemployment and poverty negatively affect growth, though not all relationships are statistically significant. Oil and Gas DBH and global oil prices are not strong determinants of regional GDP, indicating Bojonegoro's reliance on external factors inherent in the oil and gas sector. In the poverty model, unemployment emerges as the most influential variable, whereas GDP, HDI, and oil prices do not exhibit significant direct effects. The TodaYamamoto causality test reveals causal relationships from HDI to GDP, from unemployment to poverty, and from poverty to HDI, whereas most variable pairs do not exhibit reciprocal causality. Overall, the findings suggest that Bojonegoro's economic development is driven more by improvements in human capital and employment opportunities than by fluctuations in oil and gas revenues.